According to data from Halifax, first-time buyers now have to put up an average deposit of £57,278 to buy their own home. That’s £10,829 (23%) more than the previous year. First-time buyers in London have to pay over double this with an average deposit of £130,357. Here is a quick look at the drivers behind these figures and what can be done about them.
House price inflation
The most obvious reason for larger deposits is rising house prices. Despite COVID19 and Brexit, the UK has recently seen intense house-price inflation. While coincidence does not necessarily mean causality, it’s certainly interesting that this growth spurt started at the same time as the Stamp Duty holiday.
The Stamp Duty Holiday
The Stamp Duty holiday may have made a lot of people very happy. It is, however, unlikely that first-time buyers were amongst those rejoicing. They already benefited from a Stamp Duty discount. The Stamp Duty holiday effectively negated this. It put them back on the same footing as onward movers and made them only slightly better off than investment buyers.
In principle, the effect of the Stamp Duty holiday should already be starting to wear off. The closer it gets to the end of March deadline, the harder it will be for buyers to get from offer to completion by the deadline. In practice, there are two reasons why the impact of the Stamp Duty holiday might be felt for more than the next couple of months.
Firstly, the government may choose to extend the Stamp Duty holiday. It may choose to extend the overall deadline. Alternatively, it may choose to extend the holiday to anyone who has an offer accepted before the current deadline, thus giving them more time to complete. Even if it does neither, it might choose to alter Stamp Duty banding to bring in some revenue without creating a major shock in the housing market.
Secondly, what goes up does not necessarily come down again at all. Even if it does, it may not come down quickly. In other words, the end of the Stamp Duty holiday may see house prices stop rising or at least slow down their rise. It may not, however, lead to them actually falling.
Nervous lenders
At the end of the day, deposits are there to protect lenders against risk. This includes the risk of house price falls and the risk of lender default. Each lender has to decide for themselves how much of a deposit they require from each applicant. In simple terms, the more nervous a lender feels about a situation, the more likely they are to demand a high deposit.
Right now, average deposits are running between 19% in the North West to 27% in London. What’s more, they may also impose restrictions on the source of deposits. These actions may reassure anyone concerned about falling house prices triggering a rerun of 2008. They do, however, have a disproportionate impact on first-time buyers. They cannot benefit from an existing property increasing in value to help cover the cost of the deposit on a new one.
A way forward
Navigating a path through this situation could be tricky for all concerned. First-time buyers should certainly do everything they can to save for a deposit. This may include making use of the Lifetime ISA with its government-funded bonus system.
Industry, regulators and the government may, however, have to come together to organize further support measures for first-time buyers. Realistically, lenders’ hands are tied by the need to work within the framework of affordable and responsible lending. Regulators could loosen these rules, but there would be a risk to doing so.
This means that the bulk of the support is likely to need to come from the government. It could potentially come in the form of extra financial support, tax breaks, borrowing guarantees or some combination of all of these.
Your property may be repossessed if you do not keep up repayments on your mortgage.