Non-essential businesses are now starting to reopen, albeit with safety measures in place to protect against COVID19. This includes the UK’s estate agents who can now take prospective buyers and renters to view potential new homes. Of course, this supposes that there is a supply of buyers and renters and a pool of new homes for them to see. It also supposes that buyers who need a mortgage will be able to get one.
The issue of demand
Given that everyone needs somewhere to live and not everyone can live with their parents (or in accommodation provided by their work), there is always some level of demand in the housing market. The real question is whether the demand will be for property to buy or property to rent.
When you buy a home, assume you either pay cash or use a repayment mortgage, you build up equity in an asset. This can be a powerful argument in favour of buying. The problem, however, is that if you need a mortgage, then you have to be confident that you can make the repayments or else you could risk losing your home. In fact, you could risk losing your home and still owing your lender money. You also risk having your credit record damaged and having to deal with the consequences of that.
When you rent, by contrast, you do not build up any equity in your home and there are consequences for missed payments, including, potentially damage to your credit record. On the other hand, you are only committed to a tenancy for the length of a lock-in period and even then it may be possible to negotiate an early release with your landlord. This can offer people much more room to manoeuvre if their circumstances change, financially or in any other way.
The issue of supply
On the home-sales side, supply depends on people being either forced or willing and able to leave their current homes. At present, it’s a very open question how much either reason will apply in a post-COVID19 market and the answer will probably depend largely on how well the UK weathers the post-lockdown financial reckoning (and Brexit).
If it can, at least, escape recession and keep the economy ticking over, then forced sales should be minimized and hopefully people will have the confidence to move home in line with their lifestyle changes (e.g. arrival/departure of children) and preferences. If, however, the UK enters a recession or even stagnates, then the number of forced sales may increase and potential home-sellers may choose, or be forced, to stay where they are, rather than risk a change.
The home-rentals side is slightly different as buy-to-let property is bought specifically as an investment, not a home. This means that the level of supply is likely to be determined by how well property compares to other investments, such as the stock market. There is, however, the potential for properties intended for short-term letting to be brought back into residential use (for example if travel restrictions make them uneconomical). There is also the possibility that there will be an increase in the number of people letting out rooms.
The mortgage market
In principle, the mortgage market is still operating to the rules imposed by the Mortgage Market Review. It remains to be seen, however, whether or not these rules will function in a post-COVID19 environment and, if not, what the government will do about it. Again, much is likely to depend on how well the UK performs economically over the foreseeable future.
If the economy performs at least reasonably well, then the government may feel that it can leave the housing market, and by extension the mortgage market, to get on with its own business. If, however, it does not, then some form of intervention may be necessary.
Your property may be repossessed if you do not keep up repayments on your mortgage.
The FCA does not regulate some forms of Buy to let mortgages.