Prior to the lockdown, average house prices were predicted to rise by up to15% over the next five years. With COVID19 having sent the world into a tailspin, that might now be overly optimistic. It does, however, seem reasonable to expect the housing market to hold on and possibly even see growth. This is because the same positive factors still largely apply.
The “Brexit bounce”.
Houses are long-term purchases. There are lots of reasons for this, but most of them revolve around the fact that buying one usually involves a number of up-front costs and, it has to be said, corresponding administrative work.
This means that you generally want to be sure that you can stay in one for at least five years before you even contemplate a purchase, especially if you’re a first-time buyer and hence potentially qualify for special help.
Additionally, the fact that most buyers need mortgages means that they have to think carefully about their ability to service a mortgage over at least five years (which will be checked by a lender in any case).
For all of these reasons (and more), the extended delay over implementing the result of the Brexit referendum has really acted as a strong brake on the housing market. Hopefully, the fact that Brexit is now finally happening (regardless of your views on it), will allow both potential buyers and potential sellers to make plans in which they can have some degree of confidence.
Admittedly, this does depend on finding a post-COVID19 “new normal” but the signs are that this appears to be happening already. The lockdown is easing, businesses are reopening and while the economic situation remains challenging, there at least appears to be light at the end of the tunnel.
Significant investment in transport infrastructure
HS2 is, at the very least, delayed, and it will be interesting to see whether COVID19 will force the government to cancel it (or give them a face-saving reason to cancel it). Even if HS2 is cancelled, there is still very likely to be a focus on continuing to develop the infrastructure in the north of England. This will be partly for economic reasons (to encourage growth in the area) and partly for political ones (to hold on to electoral gains).
On that note, the expansion of Manchester Airport is already going ahead. In principle, the third runway at Heathrow should also go ahead, but there is always the possibility that this will be cancelled, possibly to placate those who are opposed to HS2 on cost and/or environmental grounds. Crossrail, however, is already underway.
Since none of these developments is complete (in fact neither HS2 nor the third runway at Heathrow are actually under construction yet), it’s impossible to say what specific benefits they will bring. It is, however, fair to say that improvements to infrastructure, especially transport infrastructure often lead to increased house prices along the route, particularly near to stops.
Economic stability (possibly growth)
The fact that the “Northern Irish issue” appears to have been resolved (or, at the very least, that there is a path to resolution), should hopefully make it much easier for there to be a smooth transition out of the EU.
It is probably fair to say that the EU’s desire to encourage members to remain in the block rather than going it alone will have to be balanced with a pragmatic approach to keeping trade flowing between the UK and the single market. It’s definitely fair to say that the UK has long traded on a global basis and hence should be able to continue to do so successfully. If this is the case and there is, at least, economic stability, then this is likely to have a positive impact on the housing market.
Your property may be repossessed if you do not keep up repayments on your mortgage.