Vaccines are being rolled out and spring is rolling in. That’s two reasons for there to be good cheer throughout the UK. Will this mean good cheer for the property market? Here are some factors to consider.
The economy should be reopening
All four parts of the UK have mapped out plans to exit lockdown. Admittedly those plans will depend on circumstances. In principle, there could be halts and even backwards steps before the UK emerges from the pandemic. Overall, however, the general direction of travel should be very clearly towards a post-lockdown “new normal”.
Reopening the economy should have the very practical benefit of improving housing affordability. Of course, it would be unrealistic to expect too much too soon. It’s reasonable to assume that some sectors and job areas will recover more quickly than others. In blunt terms, the less a sector has been hurt, the quicker it will recover.
That said, as sectors recover, the benefits of recovery should begin to spread. For example, as people get their jobs back they will have more disposable income. This can then be spent at other businesses.
People will have clarity on remote working
Companies are going to have to decide whether or not they’re going to support remote working over the long term. This doesn’t necessarily have to mean full-time remote working. Even companies deciding to offer flexible/hybrid working could have a meaningful impact on the housing market.
In simple terms, if remote working goes mainstream, cities and traditional commuter-belt areas could lose their appeal. They could be overtaken by areas where people can afford more space (inside and outside). These areas could have longer commutes, but if people are making them less often this could be an acceptable trade-off.
The Stamp Duty holiday is still on
New buyers might have to more very quickly indeed if they want to get the full benefit of the Stamp Duty holiday. That said, it’s not entirely impossible. If sellers are prepared and conveyancers are available and everything goes smoothly it could be done.
Even if they miss out on the full discount, however, there is still the “consolation prize” of a lower discount available for three months after the main holiday ends. What’s more, if the Chancellor then puts Stamp Duty back as it was, then first-time buyers will still benefit from reduced Stamp Duty after the end of the temporary tax break.
Help to Buy has been extended
This isn’t exactly news, but it’s still relevant. The initial Help to Buy scheme has been extended to counterbalance delays caused by COVID19. The new Help to Buy scheme will be implemented as planned. The government has also outlined an initiative to provide guarantees for 95% mortgages. This is, however, still in the pipeline.
Interest rates remain an open question
The Bank of England advised banks to prepare for the possibility of negative interest rates. Of course, that’s not at all the same as saying that they will actually happen. It is, however, making the point that they cannot be ruled out. Although negative interest rates are not at all a new concept, they would be new to the UK. Hence it’s anyone’s guess what their impact would be.
At the same time, interest-rate increases cannot be ruled out either. Obviously, if interest rates go up, then this could reduce affordability. That said, if interest rates were going up as a result of strong economic growth, the end result could still be positive.
The housing supply is unclear
Buyers need there to be sellers. Currently, it’s unclear how much new-build and existing property will be on the market this spring. Lack of supply could put a damper on the housing market. It could, however, alternatively lead to fewer transactions of higher value.
Your property may be repossessed if you do not keep up repayments on your mortgage.
For more mortgage information please contact us
